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Why Gold Why Now

For over two weeks now Gold ETF holdings have increased in a big way, helping gold keep its bid posture. The question now remains, with the dollar steadying, will the retail investor continue to support the gold price by buying more shares?

What I find interesting this morning is just before the unemployment number was released at 8:30 am eastern time, gold was up $ 1.00 for the session. And as soon as they posted the unemployment rate at 4.9 pct. the market sold off six dollars. This tells me that computer trading known as algorithms are prevalent in the marketplace. Key words after news is released can affect the price as it seems to have done this morning.

Case in point – Week in review:

  • Tuesday – Kansas City FED President Ester George states that gradual rate hikes are in the cards.
    Result: Gold market sells off on the news. Higher rates, lower gold prices.
  • Wednesday – New York FED president William Dudley says short term interest rate increases are now a considerable concern for the FED. No rate hike, higher gold prices.
    Result: Gold market rallies in a big way.
  • Early this morning – we witness the gold rally continuing from the past two days off of Dudley’s comments. And here comes the strong unemployment number. This news gives the impression that the FED might have some ammo to raise rates. Higher rates lower gold prices.
    Result: Gold sells off, now we are down $ 11 dollars in today’s session.

See a pattern?

Is the price of gold now driven by computer programs developed by big institutions? Whatever happened to supply and demand issues?

How does a person trade or invest in this market when a single word by a FED president or a government report changes the direction of the market in a split second?

Now that the news is out and absorbed, I expect we will now witness the true direction of the gold market.

The good news is we are still up $25 dollars from when Ester George felt compelled to put her two cents worth of comments into the marketplace. So I believe the key for the next few days is to watch the trading activity in the U.S. Dollar. That activity should be an indication of where the price of gold will trade in the near term. Lower Dollar = higher gold prices.

Prudent Precious Metals